Moving Forward
Prognostication about the digital future
by Tim Smith, PhD, January 10, 2002
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Since we have entered the time for prognostication,
I offer these visions of the digital future.
We all know the e-tech bubble has burst. All reasonable
investors, employees, and entrepreneurs saw this coming. We should
be impressed that we were able to keep it going for about a decade.
Moreover, the spillover into other industries looks to be short
lived unlike that of the property bubble in Japan of 1980's and
the results are acceptable compared to the Agentine Peso-to-Dollar
peg. Another bubble will come, but it will never be the same where
marketing hype is more powerful than actual product, user-benefits,
and firm profits. Now to the real business of business. For the
tech visionary and the pragmatist, we have work to do.
Consumer Market:
Networked Embedded Predictive Engines: Embedded circuits have already
been placed in the automobile to the point that the typical car
has far more computing power than the Apollo spacecraft did. Embedded
circuits are now cost-efficiently placed in typical home equipment
such as coffee makers, TVs, and answering machines. Likewise, networking
consumer devices is entering the cost reduction phase in its technology
lifecycle with 802.11 and Blue Tooth technology. Soon, these wireless
network devices will become reasonable for average people to purchase.
Yet networking embedded circuits doesn't simplify life without a
third technology - predictive software engines. Accepting that most
VCRs, and now DVD players, have digital clocks that flash 12:00,
marketers are well aware that most people have tired of setting
clocks and preparing machines to turn on and off at the right time.
Predictive software engines, that are able to detect where people
are and what their next desire might be, would fill this gap. They
would allow a consumer to set all the clocks in that person's life
at once, predict when the person might want coffee at 1:00 am when
they are working on their next business plan, or proactively download
a map to the person's web enabled Palm on their way to the Tetons.
The point of this market vision is that all the devices must be
networked, (the coffee maker should know if the person is in town
or not, perhaps through the mobile phone), they must be mobile (people
move coffee machines and unplug them for cleaning), and they must
be predictive (people find hitting the start button every day easier
than programming the coffee maker with a highly variable schedule.)
Hence, a visionary firm will create networked product line of consumer
products with embedded wireless hardware that can communicate wirelessly
with a predictive engine. Maybe Sunbeam can come back after Chainsaw
Al.
Consulting Market:
We have seen ERP, SCM, CRM, and a host of other acronyms of software
for businesses. Some, actually included ROI in their sales. XML
and its ability to integrate the business community has yet to be
played out. This technology is still in its infancy and needs to
be nurtured to fulfill the promise of enabling firms to build once,
integrate always. The same could be said for BEA and its middleware
software. Yet, the initial efforts of tying systems together is
expensive, time consuming stuff. The perfect world for the technology
consultants out there. These networking technologies will enable
the early adopter firms to both reduce infrastructure costs and
attack more markets at the same time. Along this vision are P2P
and hosted communities.
Handheld Market:
We all know that airlines earn the lion share of their profits from
business travel. What we may be unaware of is that only 5% of the
workforce travels regularly for business. Market plays that capture
this highly mobile 5% of the business community will have a defensible
niche in which to earn future returns. What will it take? Business
applications on the handheld. For instance, move the CRM software
off the laptop and into the PDA complete with a relational database
that allows salespeople to review, update, and manage their sales
process from the Opportunity, Contact, Competitive, and Company
viewpoint. Likewise, move the PowerPoint presentation off the laptop
and onto the PDA, (like Windows CE devices) and enable the business
person to travel lighter. Or, move the complex pricing configurators
to the PDA. All of these plays should produce defensible product
expansion strategies for existing market players. For new entrants,
they will have to start with the barrier to entry of displacing
the existing infrastructure. This will be a difficult play.
While the high-tech bubble has burst, there are still
some good work out there to be done. People still bough tulips,
sent freight over railroads, incorporate plastics into products,
and put DRAM chips into devices. Likewise, software and some form
of the net will still be around over my career lifespan. Now, business
must pick targets, differentiate products, and bring whole solutions
to the market. TI is still around after 60 years, so will many of
today's bright young stars of e-tech. Winter storms pass. Sailboats
motor to Lake Michigan. People go outside. Business marches forward.
I will too.
---
Tim Smith, PhD is a principal at Wiglaf, a Market Research and Sales
and Marketing Strategy consultancy serving tech-driven businesses
operating in business markets. Small and medium sized businesses
select Wiglaf for our quantitative and fact driven approach. www.wiglaf.biz.
----
The May Report, January 10, 2002
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